I've been doing a bit of thinking about retirement. Maybe it's because my parents are retiring right now. Maybe it's because I'll be turning 40 in a couple of months. Another big part is that we've turned the corner on our massive debt problem, and positive financial growth seems much more real now.

Anyway, retirement for me is still another 20+ years away. But, as far as that goes, 20 years ago I was a sophomore in college.

Anyway, there are two big unknowns in developing a solid plan. The first is - what is critical mass?

So, what will my spending be in 20 years? Dunno. I can project salary increases based on some conservative raise figure. Then take 80% of that? I won't be paying a mortgage by then. I hope not, anyway. Some say you need 25X spending. But, I think that assumes 4% draw down, and 4% growth, so you end up with the same amount you started out with. I'd rather start out with a figure and assume conservative growth, and somewhat liberal spending. If growth minus spending takes me to 100 years old, and the number at the end is positive, I figure I've done alright. The figure I've tentatively reached is $1.13 mil. But, that assumes SS income. Which, brings me to question 2!

Will Social Security be around 20, 30, 40, 50 years from now? My guess is yes, but it also seems like a good idea to figure that it won't be. That scenario has me working another 2 1/2 years, drawing less from the pot, and starting out with a figure closer to $1.3 mil.

Obviously, the SS question will be much clearer, for me anyway, 20 years from now. I have time to plan. But, maybe I should seek the advice of a professional on this one.